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SOUTH KOREA

BoK Growth Forecast Could Be At Risk

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  • Two-way price action for the single currency following the first ECB monetary policy statement and press conference since the ECB strategy review.
  • Despite an alteration to the forward guidance, the majority of analysts appear convinced the changes offer little new significance for markets at this stage.
  • With some potentially expecting a more dovish scenario, EURUSD popped above 1.18 to print a fresh weekly high at 1.1831.
  • Some cited marginal dovish tweaks, highlighting the central bank's stance "may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target". This could point to why EURUSD eventually headed lower, however, short-term positioning and dollar dynamics may be equally attributable. The pair resides 0.2% lower for Thursday, just above the week's lows at 1.1770 with a more notable 0.65% move south in EURGBP.
  • Despite the technical outlook turning favourable, EURGBP has had a sharp reversal and key support is seen roughly 0.5% from current spot at 0.8504, the July 14 low. Similarly, 1.3817 resistance in cable, the 20-day EMA, will need to hold for GBP bears. The most recent Covid data showed another daily decline in cases, potentially bolstering recent signs that UK COVID case growth could have topped out.
  • AUD and NOK extended on gains made yesterday, both gaining roughly 0.4% against the greenback.
  • UK Retail Sales and Eurozone Flash PMI's headline the European data schedule, before Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI's close out the weekly calendar.