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Europe Reliant on LNG as Pipeline Supplies Fall

NATURAL GAS

LNG imports to NWE are well above normal as Europe looks to LNG to cover the missing pipeline supplies.

  • Russian flows through Ukraine reduced from around 108mcm/d at the start of the year down to around 41mcm/d as Russian forces occupied an area of Ukraine and halting flows through Sokhranivka.
  • Poland and Bulgaria refusal to pay for Russian gas in rubles led to the stoppage of their imports through the Yamal pipeline.
  • The Nord Stream flows started to fall with Russia citing a missing turbine for the disruption before planned maintenance brought flows to a complete halt. Maximum capacity is approximately 167mcm/d.
  • LNG net imports into NW Europe are 183mcm/d compared to the 5-year average of approximately 55mcm/d for this time of year. High TTF prices continue to encourage spot cargoes to Europe with the JKM-TTF spread at -11$/mmbtu. The Aug22 US netback to Europe is estimated at 41.43$/mmbtu and to Asia is 30.43$/mmbtu
  • Below shows the Russian pipeline flows in to Europe and the NW Europe LNG net imports:

Source: Bloomberg

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