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EUROPEAN INFLATION: BUBA Estimates Softer M/M German Core & Services CPI

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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The Bundesbank’s estimate of seasonally-adjusted German CPI suggests sequential core inflation momentum decelerated in November, driven by lower services.

  • Buba calculations show core inflation eased to 0.17% M/M SA (matching MNI's estimate) after 0.43% in Oct, with services inflation at 0.09% M/M (vs 0.22% MNI estimate) after 0.35% in Oct.
  • Manufactured goods ex-energy meanwhile also decreased, to 0.26% M/M after accelerating two consecutive times before (vs 0.43% in Oct, no MNI estimate).
  • 3M/3M measures were mixed: core 0.75% vs 0.70% prior, services 0.79% vs 0.88% prior for its lowest rate since February, and manufactured goods ex-energy 0.71% vs 0.43% prior.
  • Conclusions are twofold:
    • Services momentum was quite soft this month. It remains bumpy but some moderating trend can be observed, opening the possibility for a declining yearly rate at the beginning of 2025.
    • The recent trend higher in core goods momentum stalled at least for this month.
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The Bundesbank’s estimate of seasonally-adjusted German CPI suggests sequential core inflation momentum decelerated in November, driven by lower services.

  • Buba calculations show core inflation eased to 0.17% M/M SA (matching MNI's estimate) after 0.43% in Oct, with services inflation at 0.09% M/M (vs 0.22% MNI estimate) after 0.35% in Oct.
  • Manufactured goods ex-energy meanwhile also decreased, to 0.26% M/M after accelerating two consecutive times before (vs 0.43% in Oct, no MNI estimate).
  • 3M/3M measures were mixed: core 0.75% vs 0.70% prior, services 0.79% vs 0.88% prior for its lowest rate since February, and manufactured goods ex-energy 0.71% vs 0.43% prior.
  • Conclusions are twofold:
    • Services momentum was quite soft this month. It remains bumpy but some moderating trend can be observed, opening the possibility for a declining yearly rate at the beginning of 2025.
    • The recent trend higher in core goods momentum stalled at least for this month.