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EUROPEAN INFLATION: German IFO Price Expectations Fall Notably in September

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Consumer-related IFO price expectations for Germany fell significantly in September, to 18.2 points vs 25.0 points in August. "Both retailers and consumer-related service providers contributed to that", IFO adds.

  • That is a positive note from a disinflationary standpoint, in particular on services CPI, which overall saw no progress since October 2023 in Germany (standing at 3.9% Y/Y in August). A deceleration here will be viewed favourably from the perspective of expected policy easing from the ECB on the margin.
  • "The only increase was in manufacturing, rising slightly to 6.1 points, up from 5.1 in August."
  • "The points for the ifo price expectations indicate the percentage of companies that intend to increase prices on balance. [...] The balance is seasonally adjusted."
  • German September flash inflation data is due today at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CEST after state-level data at 09:00 BST / 10:00 CEST. France and Spain HICP data have surprised to the downside on Friday, and analyst estimates released since see the EZ print coming in below initial expectations of 1.9% Y/Y at 1.8%Y/Y. Today's German and Italian HICP prints will be important to estimate the extent of any further downard surprise (or indeed moderation).
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Consumer-related IFO price expectations for Germany fell significantly in September, to 18.2 points vs 25.0 points in August. "Both retailers and consumer-related service providers contributed to that", IFO adds.

  • That is a positive note from a disinflationary standpoint, in particular on services CPI, which overall saw no progress since October 2023 in Germany (standing at 3.9% Y/Y in August). A deceleration here will be viewed favourably from the perspective of expected policy easing from the ECB on the margin.
  • "The only increase was in manufacturing, rising slightly to 6.1 points, up from 5.1 in August."
  • "The points for the ifo price expectations indicate the percentage of companies that intend to increase prices on balance. [...] The balance is seasonally adjusted."
  • German September flash inflation data is due today at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CEST after state-level data at 09:00 BST / 10:00 CEST. France and Spain HICP data have surprised to the downside on Friday, and analyst estimates released since see the EZ print coming in below initial expectations of 1.9% Y/Y at 1.8%Y/Y. Today's German and Italian HICP prints will be important to estimate the extent of any further downard surprise (or indeed moderation).