Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
German final September HICP was unrevised from the flash readings at 1.8% Y/Y (2.0% Aug) and -0.1% M/M (-0.2% Aug). The final reading to CPI was also unrevised at +1.6% Y/Y (+1.9% Aug) and 0.0% M/M (-0.1% Aug). Core CPI printed at +2.7% Y/Y (+2.8% Aug), the lowest rate since January 2022.
- Overall, the data confirms the main conclusions form the flash reading - services eased a little (contribution -0.04pp vs Aug) but momentum remained elevated, and goods inflation decreased again on a Y/Y basis (momentum ticked up, however). Energy prices were largely behind the drop in headline (contribution -0.24pp vs Aug). The 0.1pp drop on core Y/Y (when rounded to 1dp) was indeed negligible - core contribution to headline remained unchanged vs Aug.
- Developments within the services subcategories were mixed, as projected by MNI after state-level data - in most categories, some moderation was seen, however. The mixed-weighted transport category again saw a drop on the back of lower fuel prices. See table for details.
- Looking ahead, in line with the broader Eurozone, German inflation is expected to tick up again towards the end of the year on energy base effects. On services, momentum was a bit softer most recently but remained elevated. Some stickiness clearly remains.
MNI's inflation breadth tracker (see chart below) shows disinflation partially reversing in the low-inflation categories in September, with the percentage of ECOICOP (European classification of individual consumption according to purpose, a standardized category split) items printing at or below 2% falling to 52.4%% from 53.1% in Aug. In the high-inflation categories, disinflation progressed a little again after having stalled last month, with the percentage of categories printing above 6% falling to 10.3% from 12.5% in August.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.