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EUROPEAN INFLATION: German regional prints point to marginal downside risks

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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The first regional prints for German CPI are generally broadly -0.2% or -0.3% M/M (i.e. in line or a tenth lower than the versus the consensus for national CPI which is -0.2%M/M), with Y/Y prints generally increasing 0.1-0.2ppt versus October (the national print has consensus looking for an increase of 0.3ppt to 2.3%Y/Y).

  • Therefore very provisionally there appears to be very marginal downside risks to the national print - we will follow up with more shortly.
  • Note that these regional prints are based on the non-HICP national CPI print. A surprise in the national CPI print usually correlates with a surprise in HICP directionally, but the magnitude of the surprise is sometimes inconsistent.
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The first regional prints for German CPI are generally broadly -0.2% or -0.3% M/M (i.e. in line or a tenth lower than the versus the consensus for national CPI which is -0.2%M/M), with Y/Y prints generally increasing 0.1-0.2ppt versus October (the national print has consensus looking for an increase of 0.3ppt to 2.3%Y/Y).

  • Therefore very provisionally there appears to be very marginal downside risks to the national print - we will follow up with more shortly.
  • Note that these regional prints are based on the non-HICP national CPI print. A surprise in the national CPI print usually correlates with a surprise in HICP directionally, but the magnitude of the surprise is sometimes inconsistent.