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EUROPEAN INFLATION: German Sept Inflation Falls On Energy in Line w/ Tracking

EUROPEAN INFLATION
CEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The German national flash September HICP print came in in line with expectations at +1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.8% cons; 2.0% prior) and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; -0.2% prior). This is the lowest yearly rate since February 2021.

  • National flash CPI was +1.6% Y/Y (vs +1.7% cons; 1.6-1.7% MNI tracking est.; +1.9% prior) and 0.0% M/M (vs +0.1% cons; 0.0-0.1% MNI tracking est; -0.1% prior). Core CPI also slowed, but much less so, coming in at 2.7% Y/Y (2.7-2.8% MNI tracking).
  • Of the major sub-categories, services CPI is the most closely watched and generally remained sticky as we've expected after the state-level data this morning - the yearly rate at least declined a tad, to 3.8% Y/Y (3.9% prior).
  • Goods inflation has moved into negative territory for the first time since December 2020, at -0.3% Y/Y (0.0% prior), driven by energy falling further, to -7.6% Y/Y (mid -7% range MNI tracking, -5.1% prior).
  • See above for our updated EZ-wide tracking estimate.
  • Looking ahead, energy base effects will at least partially reverse the category's recent downward trend in contribution. German inflation is therefore generally expected to tick up again in the next months.
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The German national flash September HICP print came in in line with expectations at +1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.8% cons; 2.0% prior) and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; -0.2% prior). This is the lowest yearly rate since February 2021.

  • National flash CPI was +1.6% Y/Y (vs +1.7% cons; 1.6-1.7% MNI tracking est.; +1.9% prior) and 0.0% M/M (vs +0.1% cons; 0.0-0.1% MNI tracking est; -0.1% prior). Core CPI also slowed, but much less so, coming in at 2.7% Y/Y (2.7-2.8% MNI tracking).
  • Of the major sub-categories, services CPI is the most closely watched and generally remained sticky as we've expected after the state-level data this morning - the yearly rate at least declined a tad, to 3.8% Y/Y (3.9% prior).
  • Goods inflation has moved into negative territory for the first time since December 2020, at -0.3% Y/Y (0.0% prior), driven by energy falling further, to -7.6% Y/Y (mid -7% range MNI tracking, -5.1% prior).
  • See above for our updated EZ-wide tracking estimate.
  • Looking ahead, energy base effects will at least partially reverse the category's recent downward trend in contribution. German inflation is therefore generally expected to tick up again in the next months.