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EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Projects 1.8% Y/Y National CPI, Core CPI 2.7%

EUROPEAN INFLATION

From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national August flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) fell by around 0.1 to 0.2% M/M (July 0.3%) and rose 1.8% Y/Y (July 2.3%).

  • Analyst consensus currently stands at 2.1% Y/Y and 0.0% M/M (if only the analysts who forecast M/M are included, consensus for Y/Y would be 2.0%), so there seem to be downside risks of 1-3 tenths for headline inflation.
  • Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 2.7% (2.9% in July) and 0.0% M/M (0.3% July).
  • We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
  • Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
Y/YAugust (Reported)July (Reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia1.72.3-0.6
Hesse1.51.8-0.3
Bavaria2.12.5-0.4
Brandenburg1.72.6-0.9
Baden Wuert.1.52.1-0.6
Berlin1.11.7-0.6
Saxony2.63.1-0.5
Rhineland-Palatinate2.12.6-0.5
Lower Saxony2.02.4-0.4
Saarland2.22.7-0.5
Saxony-Anhalt2.42.6-0.2
Weighted average: 1.82%for 89.1%
M/MAugust (Reported)July (Reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia-0.10.3-0.4
Hesse-0.10.3-0.4
Bavaria-0.10.2-0.3
Brandenburg-0.20.3-0.5
Baden Wuert.-0.30.3-0.6
Berlin-0.30.3-0.6
Saxony-0.20.6-0.8
Rhineland-Palatinate-0.10.3-0.4
Lower Saxony-0.20.6-0.8
Saarland0.00.2-0.2
Saxony-Anhalt-0.20.2-0.4
Weighted average: -0.14%for 89.1%
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