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OIL PRODUCTS: Europe’s Refiners Unlikely to See Margin Boost: Argus

OIL PRODUCTS
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Around 400k b/d of European refinery capacity, or 3% of the region’s total, is expected to close permanently in 2025, although a boost for the margins is likely to be short-term, Argus said.

  • Outside of Europe, the world has added more than 2.5m b/d of CDU capacity in the last three years, more than offsetting for the region’s decline.
  • Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain, but European refiners’ costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls.
  • Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for further closures as they usually have weaker margins.
  • An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates, resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when the petrochemical sector is under pressure.
  • If Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria’s demand for gasoline imports, refineries that cannot desulphurise gasoline output to 10ppm will be hit the hardest.
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Around 400k b/d of European refinery capacity, or 3% of the region’s total, is expected to close permanently in 2025, although a boost for the margins is likely to be short-term, Argus said.

  • Outside of Europe, the world has added more than 2.5m b/d of CDU capacity in the last three years, more than offsetting for the region’s decline.
  • Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain, but European refiners’ costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls.
  • Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for further closures as they usually have weaker margins.
  • An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates, resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when the petrochemical sector is under pressure.
  • If Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria’s demand for gasoline imports, refineries that cannot desulphurise gasoline output to 10ppm will be hit the hardest.