EUROZONE DATA
Eurozone economic sentiment was a little better than expected in November at 95.8 (vs 95.2 cons) but was little changed from October’s 95.7. Improvements in manufacturing, construction and retail sentiment was offset by moves lower in services and consumer confidence.
- At a country level sentiment improved in France (+3.0 to 96.9) and Spain (+2.1 to 102.1), but fell in Germany (-1.3 to 88.8, a new post covid low) and Italy (-0.3 to 99.2).
- The German weakness was concentrated amongst construction and services respondents, and consumers. This may reflect uncertainty related to the recent collapse of the Traffic Light coalition.
- Expected prices ticked up in all sectors other than services (12.7 vs 13.9 prior), which should still be consistent with easing core inflation pressures going forward (given the low base of retail/industry prices).
- The expected employment indicator eased 0.3 points to 98.9, its lowest since February 2021. The resilience of the Eurozone labour will be important to watch in 2025.
- We noted last week that the Eurozone vacancy rate is starting to drop back into the high end of the pre-pandemic range, further declines from which could signal upward pressure on the unemployment rate if previous Beveridge curve relationships still hold.
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