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EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production In-Line W/ MNI Tracking; Decreases in Sep

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone industrial production was below consensus in September and came in in-line with our tracking based on national-level data, at -2.0% M/M (-1.4% cons) - more than reversing last month's gain of 1.5% (0.3pp downwardly revised form +1.8%). This means that IP remains on its broader downtrend in the Eurozone - the yearly growth rate has been negative every month since December 2023. 

  • Looking at a monthly comparison by main industrial groupings, developments were mixed: capital goods production saw the weakest developments at -3.8% M/M (but this is reversing the +3.8% M/M gain in August), followed by energy at -1.5%. Durable and non-durable consumer goods production were both stronger, at +0.5% and +1.6%, respectively. Across these groupings, over the past few months, individual readings were a bit volatile and there was no clear trend for one of them.
  • Across countries, IP weakness was driven by Germany and Ireland (reversing both these countries' strength in August). The former declined 2.7% M/M (vs a rise of 3.2% in August), contributing around -0.9ppts to the Eurozone-wide reading this month. Ireland recorded a fall of 10.7% M/M, contributing -1.0ppt; this was the largest fall since January 2024 (following an increase of 3.0% in August), though the series continues to see large swings.
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Eurozone industrial production was below consensus in September and came in in-line with our tracking based on national-level data, at -2.0% M/M (-1.4% cons) - more than reversing last month's gain of 1.5% (0.3pp downwardly revised form +1.8%). This means that IP remains on its broader downtrend in the Eurozone - the yearly growth rate has been negative every month since December 2023. 

  • Looking at a monthly comparison by main industrial groupings, developments were mixed: capital goods production saw the weakest developments at -3.8% M/M (but this is reversing the +3.8% M/M gain in August), followed by energy at -1.5%. Durable and non-durable consumer goods production were both stronger, at +0.5% and +1.6%, respectively. Across these groupings, over the past few months, individual readings were a bit volatile and there was no clear trend for one of them.
  • Across countries, IP weakness was driven by Germany and Ireland (reversing both these countries' strength in August). The former declined 2.7% M/M (vs a rise of 3.2% in August), contributing around -0.9ppts to the Eurozone-wide reading this month. Ireland recorded a fall of 10.7% M/M, contributing -1.0ppt; this was the largest fall since January 2024 (following an increase of 3.0% in August), though the series continues to see large swings.