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EUROZONE DATA: Retail Trade Slightly Higher Than Expected - Decent Revisions

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone retail trade volumes printed a tenth above consensus at 0.5% M/M in September (vs 0.4% consensus, 1.1% revised prior from 0.2%). On an annual basis, volume of retail trade firmly exceeded expectations rising 2.9 % Y/Y (vs 1.3% consensus, 2.4% revised prior from 0.8%).

  • Note the substantial upward revisions to earlier periods, including  August. The index number for August was previously estimated at 99.7 (seasonally and calendar adjusted) and that is now estimated at 100.9. So even though the M/M improvement was broadly in line with expectations, this is from a notably higher base. Note that this may be partly due to incorporating the German data which was unavailable from May onwards at the time of the last release.
  • The marginally higher than expected M/M change was driven by non-food products (ex fuel) and automotive fuel rising 1.1% (vs 1.2% in Aug) and 0.2% (vs 1.3% prior). The second consecutive positive reading for the latter.
  • Food, drinks, and tobacco retail trade volume fell 0.4% (vs 1.1% rise in August).
  • From the five largest eurozone members, Germany and Spain printed increases in retail trade volume at 1.2% M/M (vs 1.2% prior) and 1.0% M/M (vs 0.5% prior). The Netherlands reported flat retail trade volume (vs 1.0% growth in August), and France saw a decline of 0.5% M/M in volume of retail trade compared to a firm rise of 2.6% in August. (Note Italy results have not been reported for the past three months and are marked confidential).
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Eurozone retail trade volumes printed a tenth above consensus at 0.5% M/M in September (vs 0.4% consensus, 1.1% revised prior from 0.2%). On an annual basis, volume of retail trade firmly exceeded expectations rising 2.9 % Y/Y (vs 1.3% consensus, 2.4% revised prior from 0.8%).

  • Note the substantial upward revisions to earlier periods, including  August. The index number for August was previously estimated at 99.7 (seasonally and calendar adjusted) and that is now estimated at 100.9. So even though the M/M improvement was broadly in line with expectations, this is from a notably higher base. Note that this may be partly due to incorporating the German data which was unavailable from May onwards at the time of the last release.
  • The marginally higher than expected M/M change was driven by non-food products (ex fuel) and automotive fuel rising 1.1% (vs 1.2% in Aug) and 0.2% (vs 1.3% prior). The second consecutive positive reading for the latter.
  • Food, drinks, and tobacco retail trade volume fell 0.4% (vs 1.1% rise in August).
  • From the five largest eurozone members, Germany and Spain printed increases in retail trade volume at 1.2% M/M (vs 1.2% prior) and 1.0% M/M (vs 0.5% prior). The Netherlands reported flat retail trade volume (vs 1.0% growth in August), and France saw a decline of 0.5% M/M in volume of retail trade compared to a firm rise of 2.6% in August. (Note Italy results have not been reported for the past three months and are marked confidential).