Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The euro area saw a recovery in growth in H1 2024 with the quarterly increase rising to 0.3% from flat in H2 2023. Annual growth improved to 0.6% in Q2 from 0.2% in Q4 and our 6-month ahead recession probability estimates are now close to zero, despite the stagnation of the Germany economy, helped by stronger equities, lower oil prices, recovering economic sentiment and lower rates/yields. The ECB decision is announced on September 12, with revised forecasts, and a second full 25bp of easing is priced in, which should help to keep recession risks low. In June the ECB revised up its 2024 growth forecast to 0.9% and expected it to pick up to 1.4% in 2025.
Euro area recession probability 6 months ahead
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.