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PLN: EURPLN Hits New Cycle Low But Move Lower Lacks Conviction

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EURPLN briefly hit a fresh cycle low this afternoon, but moves for the zloty have lacked distinct conviction with the US holiday limiting volumes across global currency markets. Meanwhile, limited notable developments regarding Ukraine peace talks has kept the focus for CEE currencies on the US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia later in the week, while the regional data slate lacks any tier 1 releases.

  • The psychological 4.15 handle marks the next level of support for EURPLN ahead of 4.1408, a projection level. The deep pullback this month sees the 14-day RSI remain below the ‘oversold’ 30-threshold, with the cross looking to close lower again today (for what would mark the 8th close lower over the past 10 sessions).
  • ING wrote earlier today that questions surrounding US military commitment to European security undermine confidence in the credibility of NATO guarantees, which increases geopolitical risk premium in the CEE space. As a result, they note that a test of 4.15 by EURPLN is limited and a correction higher cannot be ruled out.
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EURPLN briefly hit a fresh cycle low this afternoon, but moves for the zloty have lacked distinct conviction with the US holiday limiting volumes across global currency markets. Meanwhile, limited notable developments regarding Ukraine peace talks has kept the focus for CEE currencies on the US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia later in the week, while the regional data slate lacks any tier 1 releases.

  • The psychological 4.15 handle marks the next level of support for EURPLN ahead of 4.1408, a projection level. The deep pullback this month sees the 14-day RSI remain below the ‘oversold’ 30-threshold, with the cross looking to close lower again today (for what would mark the 8th close lower over the past 10 sessions).
  • ING wrote earlier today that questions surrounding US military commitment to European security undermine confidence in the credibility of NATO guarantees, which increases geopolitical risk premium in the CEE space. As a result, they note that a test of 4.15 by EURPLN is limited and a correction higher cannot be ruled out.