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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- After experiencing a sharp depreciation against all major crosses in March, breaking slightly above its LT key resistance at 4.65, the Polish Zloty mean-reverted in April, reducing the risk of exacerbating the rising inflationary pressures in the coming months.
- We saw that the Preliminary April CPI came in higher than expected at 4.3% (vs. 3.9% exp.), up from 3.2% the previous month, mostly driven by the surge in fuel oil, and diverging significantly from the NBP 3.5-percent upper tolerance band.
- However, policymakers mentioned in several occasions that the spike in inflation is expected to be temporary and that inflationary pressure should ease in the second half of this year.
- The chart below shows the dynamics of the EURPLN exchange rate since the start of 2020.
- Interestingly, the upward trending line and the 100D SMA (green line) have been acting as strong support levels for EURPLN. The pair has been retracing higher after it failed to break below them yesterday.
- With the NBP expected to remain on hold at least until the middle of 2022, the accelerating inflation in Poland could lead to further PLN weakness in the coming months, pushing EURPLN to new highs.
- Key resistance stands at 4.68 (March 29 high); a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 4.75 (March 2009 high).
- On the downside, another key support below 4.55 stands at 4.51 (200D SMA).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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