MNI BRIEF: Canada PM Carney Derides Trump's 51st State Idea

MNI BRIEF: Carney Sworn In As PM, Names Champagne To Finance

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 14

MNI BRIEF: China February M2 Stays At 7% Y/Y

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW2: Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 199; OIL RIGS 139; GAS RIGS 60

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 592; OIL RIGS 487; GAS RIGS 100

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR Due Monday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

FOREX: EURUSD Oscillating Around 1.0500 as ECB Approaches

FOREX
  • Focus now turns to the ECB, with EURUSD continuing to oscillate around 1.0500, where notable levels of option expiries reside. Our baseline scenario assumes the ECB delivers a 25bp policy rate cut, staff macroeconomic projections show downward revisions to growth and inflation in 2025, while inflation converges to target over the medium term.
  • Overnight straddles suggest that EURUSD may be contained to a 65 point range either side of spot, limiting the probability of a significant breakout ahead of the weekend. With that in mind, initial resistance at 1.0566 (20-day EMA) remains intact and will garner attention on the topside, while support is at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low. A bearish trend structure is in place and 1.0335 remains the notable the bear trigger.
  • EURJPY has seen solid resistance ~160.50 over the past two sessions, unable to close above the 20-day EMA, intersecting today at 160.35. Further single currency weakness could also put further pressure on EURGBP, which continues to edge towards 0.8203, the Mar 7 2022 low and a major support for the cross. Any hawkish EUR reaction might see EURCHF revisit the post-SNB high of 0.9344, ahead of the 50-day EMA at 0.9353.
  • President Lagarde will likely indicate that risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, but steer clear of providing any guidance on future policy rates and reiterate the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.