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Existing Home Sales Miss And Supply Builds

US DATA

Existing home sales fell for the fifth month running, down -5.4% M/M in June vs -1.1% consensus.

  • As evidenced by the trend slide in mortgage applications (even if they tentatively stabilised through June), "falling housing affordability continues to take a toll on potential home buyers" but those who can afford it are acting quickly, with a record-low pace of days on market despite a 9.6% increase in inventory on the month, helped by all-cash sales holding at 25% (up from 23% a year-ago).
  • It meant median home price growth only slowed from 15.0 to 13.4% Y/Y to further extend the longest running streak on record, but could face growing downward pressure as unsold inventory has increased to 3.0 months for the highest since Aug'20 (2.6 in May, low of 1.6 in Jan).
  • Front-end Treasury yields have increased 1.5bps since the release for -3bps on the day but it looks as much as continuation of a move seen prior to the US open as it continues to unwind earlier risk-off moves with equities also firming strongly.

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