Exit Poll Shows Pro-EU Opposition On Track To Form Government

The Ipsos exit poll showed that pro-democracy opposition parties (Civic Coalition, Third Way, New Left) may grab enough seats to form the next government, even as the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party emerged as the front-runner in Poland's bitterly fought parliamentary elections. The results of the exit poll are reproduced in the table below.

• Based on initial survey results, the ruling party was expected to grab 200 seats, falling short of the absolute majority of 231. The Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left were on track to claim the combined 248 seats, which would be enough to form a coalition government.
• The Ipsos poll suggested that turnout reached 72.9%, by far the best result in Poland's post-communist history. The previous record for a parliamentary election was set during the first partially free elections in 1989, when 62.7% of eligible voters cast their ballots.
• The centre-right Third Way likely performed much better than expected, finding itself well above the 8% electoral threshold for coalition lists. The far-right Confederation appeared to have fared significantly worse than expected and are set to increase their presence in parliament by just one MP.
• The Ipsos poll showed that the turnout in a referendum held alongside the elections was 40.0%, falling short of the 50% threshold. While the referendum returned clear and one-sided results, this means that they will not be binding for the incoming administration.
• The victory of pro-EU opposition parties will likely be interpreted as market-positive amid the increased odds of reopening the negotiations with the EU over unfreezing funds earmarked for Poland. However, the three-party coalition may have a difficult time cohabiting with a hostile President.
• Note that these figures are still subject to revisions. Late polls are due at some point tonight, while the official results will be published on Monday night at the earliest and more probably on Tuesday.
• Once the official results are out, the President will nominate the initial PM candidate, likely from the largest party, giving them the first chance to form government, pending the approval of the new parliament.

Table 1. Lower House Election 2023 - Ipsos Exit Poll