Exit Polls Point Towards Modi's NDA Failing To Take West Bengal

Exit polls released following the closing of polling stations in West Bengal after the eighth round of voting concluded today point towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP-led National Democratic Alliance failing to make the required breakthrough to win a majority in the regional parliament.

• India (West Bengal), C voter exit poll seat projection: AITC (Centrist): 152-164, BJP (Right): 109-121, Left-front/INC (Centre-left/Left): 14-25.
• If the exit polls reflect the final seat totals it would give the incumbent AITC a narrow majority, just over the 148 seat threshold required to govern without outside support. Given the significant resources pumped into the West Bengal election by the BJP, coming away with an AITC majority will come as a significant disappointment.
• In Tamil Nadu the outlook is even worse for the Modi and the NDA. Exit polls there suggest the incumbent AIADMK - an ally of Modi's BJP - has lost power to the centre-left DMK, which sits alongside India's main opposition party the Indian National Congress in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
  • India (Tamil Nadu), CNX Exit poll seat projection: UPA (Centre-left/Left): 165 (+67), NDA (Right): 63 (-73), Others: 6 (+6)
• Given that voting took place over a month in separate phases, it is too early to say whether the massive increase in COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and fatalities that has hit India in recent weeks impacted the election as a whole. Nevertheless, the distressing scenes witness across the country are unlikely to have boosted NDA support in the final phases of the election.
• The federal gov't remains under significant pressure due to the scale of the outbreak and the strain placed on healthcare services across the country.