Experts Downplay Chances of Full Mobilisation in Russia on May 9

LOCAL NEWS

• Russian expert Dmitri Alperovitch says he does not believe Putin will enact full mobilisation on May 9 – nothing that he can already sell three key points that can be construed as ‘victory’ due to extensive state propaganda.
  • 1) demilitarised Ukraine by destroying a lot of equipment & military infrastructure 2) denazified it by defeating the Azov battalion in Mariupol 3) protected his people in Donbas & Crimea by enlarging their territory and creating a land bridge.
  • Notes that declaring victory would not mean an end to the fighting, but Russia could switch to defensive tactics to defend gains - Twitter
• Analyst says attempts to remove Putin internally are increasingly likely due to tensions within his intelligence community. Says discontent has been building since Putin started blaming his security services for Russia’s heavy casualties.
  • Security expert Andrei Soldatov says Putin may also have been preparing for a coup for some time now after purging over 150 of his own intelligence agency over constant failures – reflecting a degree of paranoia over a potential coup – Sky
• Overnight, missile fire targeted Cherkasy, Dnipro & Zaporizhzhia with Russia continuing to focus on key transport/military infrastructure and radio/TV stations.
  • Ukraine resumed calls for international assistance appealing to the UN for assistance in evacuating the Azovstal steel plant, and calling for NATO-standard heavy weapons to be delivered directly to Ukraine instead of older weapons sent from Poland. – Sky