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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SGD
On the wires this morning we had Dec export data. Non-oil Domestic Exports printed at -20.6%, below the Bloomberg survey median of -16.0%, with prior reading revised higher to -14.7%. MoM growth fell 3.3%, this was significantly below the Bloomberg survey median of 0.2% growth. Electronic Exports fell -17.9%, the prior reading was -20.2%.
- Base effects and weakness from China, which should partially reverse as we progress through 2023, were factors in the weaker export figures, but there is no doubting the slowing trends. As we highlighted late last year, the weaker export growth backdrop suggests the best of SGD NEER gains is behind, see the chart below.
- An on-hold MAS bias/view can still be challenged by the inflation backdrop though. Note Dec CPI is released next Wednesday. The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) has drifted a touch lower, last at 135.60/65. We are -0.82% below the top end of the MAS policy band.
- For USD/SGD, we last sit just above $1.32, after breaching the 2021 low on Friday. The technical trend remains bearish for the pair, as we sit comfortably below the 20,50,100,200 EMAs and the 100-Day EMA has crossed the 200-Day EMA in early January. The next target for bears is the 2018 low at $1.3009, bulls first look to break $1.3369 to halt the bear's momentum.
Fig 1: SGD NEER Y/Y & Smoothed Export Growth (6mths Forward)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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