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Exports Lose Some Momentum In First 20-days Of July


The first 20-days July trade data showed some loss of momentum for exports compared to June. Exports were down -15.2% y/y for the first 20-days of the month, which compares with +5.3% recorded for the first 20-days in June. On the import side we saw a further loss of momentum at -28% y/y, compared with -11.2% y/y for the first 20-days in June. The trade deficit stood at -$1.361bn for the first 20-days of July.

  • The export y/y number doesn't change based off daily average (still at -15.2% y/y).
  • In terms of the detail on the export side, export growth to China remains negative at -21.2% y/y, the equivalent number for June was -12.5%.
  • Export momentum to the US fell noticeably to -7.3% y/y, from +18.4% in June, but this series has been volatile in recent months.
  • Chip exports fell -35.4% y/y for the first 20-days of July, we were -23.5% in June for this sub-sector.
  • Overall, the data suggests caution around extrapolating a dramatically improving trend in South Korean export growth for H2 (see the chart below). The MNI policy team noted in an interview yesterday that while exports should drop by less in H2, weak chip sales to China are a potential downside risk.

Fig 1: South Korea First-20 Exports & Full Month Trend

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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