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Exports Surprise On The Upside, Led By Resilient US Demand

JAPAN DATA

Japan September trade data was better than expected from an export standpoint. Export growth came in at 4.3% y/y (3.0% forecast and -0.8% prior). Imports were -16.3% y/y (forecast -12.7%, prior -17.7%). The trade balance printed a surplus ¥62.4bn, versus -¥451.5bn forecast and -¥937.8bn prior. In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade position was closer to expectations, -¥434.1bn, versus -¥553.7bn expected and -¥553bn prior.

  • The better export picture was driven by firm y/y growth to both the US (+13.0%) and the EU (+12.9%). Car exports were a source of strength. Exports to China remained depressed (-6.2%y/y) and to the rest of Asia as well (-4.3%y/y). China's ban on food and fish related exports weighed on this segment (-58% y/y) per the MOF (RTRS)
  • Broader export trends have more positive in North East Asia economies in September. Resilient export growth to the US also fits with the soft landing thesis.
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