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Extend Late Session Lows, SF Daly Echoes Powell, Cautious on Cut Size

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures extended lows into the closing bell, gradually declining since midday: Sep'24 10Y marked 113-18.5 (-4), 10Y yield at 3.8160% (+.0170).
  • The late extension possible tied to SF Fed Daly sounding a little more cautious over pace/size of rate cuts while generally echoing Chairman Powell's "the time is now" opinion from Jackson Hole.
  • Treasury futures have reversed the modest overnight support after the open, see-sawing lower on narrow range after Core durable goods orders were softer than expected in preliminary July data, falling -0.1% M/M (cons 0.1) after a downward revised 0.5% (initial 0.9%).
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey improved by more than expected to -9.7 (cons -16.0) in August from -17.5, still firmly negative but its highest level since Jan 2023.
  • Despite London close for bank holiday, heavier volumes so far (TYU4>3.5M) driven by Sep/Dec roll efforts with percentage complete near 60% in 5s ahead Fri's first notice.
  • Cross asset roundup: US$ index gained (+.148 at 100.866), crudes trading higher (WTI +2.0 at 76.83) on Libya announcing force majeure recently, not to mention mid-East tension following after Israel bombed target in Lebanon.
  • Data on tap Tuesday: Housing Data, Consumer Confidence, regional Fed data from Dallas and Richmond Fed.
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