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Extending Gains Ahead NFP

US TSYS
  • Treasuries continue to climb in the lead-up to this morning's headline employment data for July, Sep'24 10Y futures up to early February levels (TYU4 113-02.5 high), 10Y yield marking 3.9281% low (Feb 2 level). Tsy curves little flatter after late Thursday bull steepening, 2s10s -1.033 at -18.662, 5s30s -.097 at 43.790.
  • Carry-over support from Thursday's softer economic data followed the midweek dovish hold from the FOMC, while continued geopolitical risk in the Middle East provided additional safe haven support.
  • Today's Nonfarm payrolls are expected to moderate further in July (175k est) after the slight beat in June was more than offset by large negative revisions to the prior two months. Hurricane Beryl is likely to have the largest impact on the establishment survey, clouding the underlying trends with expected negative impacts on payrolls and hours worked but some upside for AHE growth.
  • Initial technical resistance at 113-06.5 (high Feb 1) followed by 113-12 (high Dec 27 ‘23 (cont) and a key resistance). On the flipside, support to watch is 112-01.5 (Low Aug 1) followed by 111-04/110-18 (20- and 50-day EMA values).
  • Additional data at 1000ET Factory and Durable Goods Orders. Fed speak resumes with Chicago Fed Goolsbee Bbg TV interview at noon, Richmond Fed Barkin public TV interview at 2030ET. Will be alert for unscheduled Fed speakers particularly if this morning's data is off consensus.
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