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US TSYS: Extending The Week’s Decline Ahead Of CPI Report

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have modestly extended the week’s push lower today, following yesterday’s further round of long cover, amidst particularly low volumes ahead of today's CPI report.
  • The recent sell-off has diluted the potential magnitude of reaction to a hawkish CPI print if driven by stickier items although there is likely still high sensitivity there. Consensus eyes what would be a fourth core CPI print around 0.3% M/M (unrounded 0.27/0.28%) for a sizeable acceleration, although surprises will depend on core PCE tracking with early estimates on average looking for 0.21% M/M which would leave a same four-month average around 0.225% M/M.
  • MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Dec2024_b72e14af0a.pdf
  • Cash yields are 1-2bps higher with increases led by the front end.
  • 2s10s has dipped to 7.8bps (-0.7bp) as it pulls back further from yesterday’s post-Bessent pick high of 9.9bps.
  • TYH5 trades close to session lows of 110-27 (-05) on exceptionally low volumes of 170k. It’s just above yesterday’s low of 110-26 and with support is seen at 110-18 (Dec 4 low), but the recent bull cycle is seen in play with resistance at 111-20+ (Dec 6 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Dec 6 (0700ET), CPI Nov (0830ET), Real earnings Nov (0830ET), Federal budget balance Nov (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance:US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open - 91282CLW9 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have modestly extended the week’s push lower today, following yesterday’s further round of long cover, amidst particularly low volumes ahead of today's CPI report.
  • The recent sell-off has diluted the potential magnitude of reaction to a hawkish CPI print if driven by stickier items although there is likely still high sensitivity there. Consensus eyes what would be a fourth core CPI print around 0.3% M/M (unrounded 0.27/0.28%) for a sizeable acceleration, although surprises will depend on core PCE tracking with early estimates on average looking for 0.21% M/M which would leave a same four-month average around 0.225% M/M.
  • MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Dec2024_b72e14af0a.pdf
  • Cash yields are 1-2bps higher with increases led by the front end.
  • 2s10s has dipped to 7.8bps (-0.7bp) as it pulls back further from yesterday’s post-Bessent pick high of 9.9bps.
  • TYH5 trades close to session lows of 110-27 (-05) on exceptionally low volumes of 170k. It’s just above yesterday’s low of 110-26 and with support is seen at 110-18 (Dec 4 low), but the recent bull cycle is seen in play with resistance at 111-20+ (Dec 6 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Dec 6 (0700ET), CPI Nov (0830ET), Real earnings Nov (0830ET), Federal budget balance Nov (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance:US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open - 91282CLW9 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)