Eyes on Venezuela Sanction Relief as Crunch Nov. 30 Deadline Approaches

Following Venezuela’s temporary sanctions relief since Oct. 16, there has been a flurry of activity to restart operations and boost its production. However, recent progress could be undermined if Venezuela fails to meet agreed obligations by Nov. 30.

• Sanctions could be reimposed on Nov. 30 if Venezuela fails to release political prisoners and Americans that the US says are 'wrongfully detained', as well as lifting public office bans. The ban currently applies to the winner of the main opposition's presidential primary, Maria Cornia Machado.
• The US Treasury has reiterated that temporary sanctions relief is not an endorsement for a full-scale resumption of operations.
• However, international companies have shown little trepidation in returning to Venezuela. The South American state has already reached an agreement with half a dozen multinational companies to boost its oil production. Trading houses such as Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor have also resumed operations.
• Venezuela’s oil production has risen to 850k b/d in November, according to Venezuelan vice minister for hydrocarbons Erick Perez, up from 786k b/d in October.
• If sanctions are reimposed, The US will have discretion as to what extent. Brian Nichols, a US Assistant Secretary of State, said Nov. 16 that "everything is on the table," including the withdrawal of licences to export Venezuelan oil.
• Reuters reported that Biden is under pressure from Republicans to reimpose sanctions, although he may be reticent to tighten global oil supplies in the run-up to an election year. The final decision may depend on what steps Maduro takes by Nov. 30.
• Reuters said Nov. 28 that the Venezuela’s President Maduro, "may allow for appeals in court from opposition politicians seeking to remove bans from public office, a partial compliance with U.S. demands.