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Factory Orders Plunge Masks Strength in Consumer Goods

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY SEP FACTORY ORDERS -4.0% M/M (FCST -0.5%); AUG -2.0%r M/M

GERMANY SEP FACTORY ORDERS -10.8% Y/Y (FCST -7.2%); AUG -3.8%r Y/Y
  • German factory orders again contracted in September, falling by 4.0% m/m as demand slows.
  • The marked annualised decline of -10.8% y/y was in part due to base effects. Euro-area and foreign orders plunged by -8.0% m/m and -7.0% m/m.
  • A notable divergence between product categories was evident: Capital goods orders plunged by -6.0% m/m, indicating pessimistic growth plans pushing a decline in business investment. Intermediate goods fell by -3.4% m/m as short to medium-term demand outlooks weaken ahead of a winter of high energy prices.
  • Meanwhile, consumer goods jumped by +7.2% m/m, mirroring robust consumer spending in Q3 which saw GDP remain afloat at +0.3% q/q.
  • Further strength in consumer goods could again boost Germany's GDP into Q4 as the economy teeters on the edge of a recession.
German Factory Orders:

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