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Fading Greenback Tilts GBP/USD Toward Bull Trigger

FOREX
  • The greenback remains soft against most others in G10, putting the USD Index to another monthly low and within range of the early February support at 100.82. Weakness through here would put the USD at the lowest level since late April last year, a move predicated by the waning expectations for the Fed peak rate as well as the softer details in the March US CPI release.
  • USD weakness has helped tip most major pairs through a number of key levels - EUR/USD now sits comfortably north of 1.10, while GBP/USD is narrowing in on the April high and bull trigger at 1.2525 - a level that, if broken, would mark the resumption of the uptrend off the March low and end the 2023 consolidation phase on a positive note.
  • CHF again trades well, with USD/CHF through to new YTD lows and targeting handle support at the 0.8900 level. The pair is yet to hit technically oversold levels, but a break below the handle could tip the 30-day RSI below 30 for the first time since November.
  • JPY sits softer alongside the USD despite the more moderate equity performance Thursday, while AUD outperforms on a more flattering overnight jobs release. AUD/JPY has printed a fifth consecutive higher high, narrowing the gap with resistance at 90.08.
  • Weekly jobless claims data and the March PPI release take focus going forward, while the central bank speaker slate circles an MNI event with BoE Chief Economist Pill at 1400BST/0900ET ( registration link here ) and ECB's Nagel after the London close.
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