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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SPAIN DATA
Unemployment claims data released this morning ended a 3-month streak of sequentially increasing claims, with all sectors contributing to the downside.
- Total NSA claims fell by -24.6k in November, not enough to offset the +36.9k rise seen in October. Services, which account for around 72% of the Spanish labour market saw a -17.3k fall (vs +31.3k in October). However, the stock of unemployment claims in services fell -4.5% Y/Y, and Y/Y rates have now been negative for 31 consecutive months.
- The European Commission's expected employment indicator for Spain has been trending upwards since October 2022, both overall and for services specifically. While the November print saw services expected employment fall to +15.6 (vs +18), the 3M average rose to +16.1 (vs +15.2). This suggests there are upside risks to INE's services sector employment index (where the September reading printed at an index value of 113.6 vs 112.6 in August).
- Given the unemployment claims data is not seasonally adjusted, a further fall is likely in December, particularly for services.
- Longer term trends in unemployment claims alongside the Q3 labour cost survey (released 18 December) are most important in assessing the tightness of the Spanish labour market. Services inflation has remained sticky above 4% Y/Y in recent months, and a loosening of the services labour market will be required to bring these rates lower.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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