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Falls Back To Early January Levels, Headline Inflation Expected To Ease Further

THB

USD/THB is the strongest gainer within the USD/Asia space so far today, with the pair up over 1.5%, last near 33.48. A large part of this reflects catch up to broader USD gains after onshore markets closed on Friday. Earlier highs for the pair came in close to 33.63. We are now back to early Jan levels. On the upside, the 34.00 level presents as a target, while the 50-day EMA also just comes in above this level. On the downside, note the 20-day EMA is around 33.15.

  • Portfolio outflows remained a headwind through Friday, with $66.3mn in equity outflows and nearly $183mn in the bond space. Last week saw around $1.25bn in combined outflows, although the majority of these came from the bond space.
  • Local equities are down slightly today, the SET index off 0.20%, last around 1680/85, with the 1700 level continuing to act as a resistant point.
  • On the data front, Jan CPI figures came in a touch below expectations. Headline at 5.02% y/y, versus 5.10% expected, while core was at 3.04% y/y, 3.10% forecast.
  • The Commerce Ministry expects headline pressures to ease further in Feb (sub 5%), which would be consistent with the trend move lower since pressures peaked in August last year.
  • Core prices haven't shown the same degree of downside momentum, but the authorities expect overall inflation to be within 2-3% this year.
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