Far-Right Freedom Party Tops Polls For First Time Since May-17

The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) has for the first time since May 2017 come top in a nationwide opinion poll, garnering 26% support in the latest poll from Market-Lazarsfeld.

• Market-Lazarsfeld poll: FPÖ: 26% (+1), Social Democrats (SPÖ): 25% (-2), People's Party (ÖVP): 20% (-1), NEOS: 13% (+1), Green: 10%, MFG: 1%, +/- vs. 7-16 November 2022. Fieldwork: 14-23 November 2022. Sample size: 2,000
• Rising support for the FPO has come largely at the expense of the centre-right OVP, which governs in coalition with the environmentalist Greens. The party has failed to recover its past levels of support (mid-40s in the summer of 2020) following the resignation of then-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz due to a corruptions scandal in late-2021.
• While the FPO looks to be cementing its position as one of the most popular parties in Austria, the prospect of it leading the next gov't is slim. The FPO has been in gov't before, but only as a junior partner to the OVP. It is unlikely that Chancellor Karl Nehammer's party would agree to a coalition deal with the FPO as the senior partner. Instead, a 'grand coalition' involving the SPO, OVP and Greens or liberal NEOS could be formed to keep the FPO out of power.
• The next election is not due until autumn 2024 at the latest, and given the OVP's poor polling numbers it is unlikely to seek a snap vote.