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February Trade Balance Data, Banxico Decision Thursday

MEXICO
  • Mexico’s trade balance is expected to swing to a $1.1b surplus in February from a $4.1b deficit in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The data is likely to add evidence of increasing activity and rising domestic demand. Exports will benefit from recovering US industrial production, with nearshoring to Mexico supporting higher capital-goods imports and pointing to higher exports. The data is scheduled at 1300BST/0800ET.
  • The more benign risk backdrop to start the week is underpinning a firmer peso. USDMXN has just fallen to two-week lows below 18.38. The next support to watch lies at 18.2397, the Mar 13 low. A break of this level would undermine the recent bullish theme and instead expose support at 17.8981, the Mar 9 low.
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