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Fed 2H23 Rate Cut Expectations Build Again

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are back unchanged from Friday’s close for near-term meetings, with 15bp for Wed and a cumulative 21bp for May.
  • It masks sizeable moves already today, with a May terminal of 4.88% as trading resumed after weekend announcements before sliding 20bps and then bouncing 11bps through London hours to 4.79% at typing.
  • The move lower weighed more heavily on later meetings, building back to 105bp of cuts to year-end with 3.72% (-11bp), just shy of the most inverted it’s been (at close) since the start of the banking crisis.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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