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FED: Chair Powell Points to Easing Through Year-End 2025 Remaining Similar

FED
  • Q: Why did the FOMC's rate expectations shift so much since March?
    • A: The big thing that changed was the inflation forecast, moved up several tenths for end-year. We had really good inflation data in 2H 2023 then a kind of pause in progress in 1Q 2024. So the sense that rate cuts might take place this year, next year, you know. There are fewer cuts in the median this year but one more next year, so looking at year-end 2025-26, you're almost exactly where you would have been, just moved later because of that progress.
  • Q: Should we read the higher longer-run dot that policy is not as restrictive as previously expected?
    • A: It did move up - but want to point out that it is a theoretical concept that can't be directly observed.
    • People have been gradually writing it up, as they come to the view that it's less likely rates will come down to where they were pre-pandemic.
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