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FED: Chair Powell Questioned On the Dot Plot, Confirms May CPI Data Was Known

FED
  • Q: 15/19 on FOMC see 1 or 0 cuts this year. Can you explain the nuances of this, September cut possible?
    • A: People are looking at a range of plausible outcomes, saying I can't really distinguish between two of these, but we ask them to write down the most likely one. I think I would look at all of them as plausible - what everyone agrees on is it will be data dependent. Nobody on the Committee has a strong commitment to a particular rate path. I don't hold it with high confidence.
    • In terms of future meetings, we don't make decisions until we get there; in terms of what we need to see: greater confidence. Certainly more good inflation readings will help with that. It's not just inflation, it's the totality of the data. We see today's report as progress and building confidence, but not enough to begin to loosen policy at this time.
    • Re whether FOMC incorporated today's CPI data to the projections:
    • We tell participants how to update their projections; they have the ability to do so; some do, some don't. Most don't. We'll see PPI tomorrow, we'll know more about PCE as the month goes on.
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