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Fed Chair Powell Roils Policy Waters Ahead Friday Blackout

So much for not roiling the waters ahead late Friday's media blackout on monetary policy. Likely under pressure to allay higher and/or entrenched inflation concerns, Fed Chair Powell surprised mkts at Tue's Cares Act testimony when he suggested it was "TIME TO RETIRE THE WORD TRANSITORY REGARDING INFLATION" while the "THREAT OF PERSISTENTLY HIGHER INFLATION HAS GROWN."
  • Yld curves flattened as Tsys reversed course/sold off, short end hammered, bonds bounced back to session highs within an hour (30YY 1.7745L).
  • Fed Chair comments on wrapping up tapering a "few months sooner" took a toll on short end, Sep'22 Eurodollar futures fell appr 12bps to 99.30 low, VIX vol index spiked to 28.56 (+5.7), put volumes surged and equities sold off (ESZ1 -80.0 at 4571.0). Significant Block 5s/ultra 10s flattener: -14,021 FVH2 vs. +5,650 UXYH2.
  • Long end outperformed amid flurry of steepener stop-outs, general view of economy, uncertainty over Covid variants etc. 5s30s almost dipped below 59.0 -- lowest since March 2020, drew spec and fast$ buying with spd back to 63.5 late.
  • Data on tap Wed includes ADP private jobs (+525k est vs. +571k prior) may give some indication on employ conditions ahead Fri' NFP (+535k est vs. +531k prior).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 3.9bps at 0.5236%, 5-Yr is down 0.3bps at 1.1468%, 10-Yr is down 6.1bps at 1.4375%, and 30-Yr is down 7.3bps at 1.7818%.

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