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Off Lows, Fed Communications Eyed

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries weakened overnight but have bounced off session lows (at levels last seen late last Thursday). A bare data slate (weekly MBA mortgage applications at 0700ET aside) puts the focus firmly on supply and Fed communications.

  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.1511%, 5-Yr up 1.5bps at 0.8324%, 10-Yr up 1.9bps at 1.6557%, 30-Yr up 1.7bps at 2.3765%. Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4.5/32 at 132-08 (L: 132-05 / H: 132-14).
  • Not much newsflow driving the weakness, so worth noting the price action outside of Tsys: Bunds have broken key support with 10-Yr yields rising to two-year highs, while equities are firmly lower (led by NASDAQ futs amid further cryptocurrency weakness). Dollar bouncing too.
  • The FOMC minutes (1400ET) are the focus, though judging from analysts' previews, seems like expectations are pretty low for new revelations, particularly given the developments in data since the April FOMC.
  • We hear from St Louis Fed's Bullard (1000ET) and at the same time but separately VC Quarles testimony before House Financial Services Committee; Atlanta's Bostic at 1135ET.
  • At 1300ET we get a $27B 20-Yr Bond auction (also a $35B 119-day bill auction at 1130ET). NY Fed buys ~$6.025B of 4.5-7Y Tsys.

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