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Fed Cut Pricing Trimmed On PCE Report

STIR
  • The PCE report has generated relatively little reaction in Fed Funds implied rates, with near-term rates back unchanged but a drift higher into 2024 to trim a recent build in inversion. The post-JOLTS decline remains the clear driver though – see table.
  • Cumulative hikes: +2.5bp for Sep, +11.5bp for Nov terminal at 5.45%.
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 2bp to Dec’23, 48bp to Jun’24 (from 51bp pre-PCE), and 118bp to Dec’24 (from 122bp pre-PCE, but vs 107bp pre-JOLTS).

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