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Fed Cuts For 2024 Near 100bps After Strong ISM Services

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a significant push higher on the back of the stronger than expected ISM Services reading for its highest since February.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +2bp for Sep’23 (+0.5bp on the day), +14bp for Nov to a 5.47% terminal (+2.5bp) and it’s now closely followed by the +13.5bp for Dec’23.
  • Cuts from terminal: 35bp to Jun’24 (from 40bp) and 102bp to Dec’24 (from 108bp), nearing or pushing fresh recent lows for the level of inversion in the curve.
  • SOFR futures show something similar, with the SFRU3/Z4 spread trimmed to -103bps, having last seen less inversion in March and before that Nov 2022.

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