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CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1046 FRI VS 7.1020

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Fed Firmly Focused on Inflation

US TSYS
US FI markets hold weaker levels after the bell -- off mid-morning lows when 30YY climbed to 3.1711%, and holding narrow band through the second half.
  • Brief dip in Tsy futures after Fed Chairman Powell comment on WSJ interview that the Fed "won't hesitate to raise rates above neutral if needed" to bring inflation down. Levels recovered just as quickly as Chair Powell stuck to the dual mandate boiler plate comments for the most part.
  • "What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way," Powell told the WSJ in a webcast. "We're going to keep pushing until we see that. We don't know with any confidence what neutral is, we don't know where tight is," he said.
  • Rates traded weaker post-data, retail sales excl autos better than est at 0.6% (0.4% est), control group +1.0% vs. 0.8% est. Yield curves bear flattened: 2s10s -4.454 at 26.172, 5s30s -4.277 at 1.138%.
  • StL Fed Bullard comments at EIC conf: 50bp hikes "at coming meetings"; market vol "reflects policy outlook repricing". While Bullard says the Fed has a good plan in place to address inflation -- has yet to mention recession risk for US (did say doesn't think Europe will go into recession). Last week, Bullard stated recession is "not that high for the US" while the "current strong jobs market is not consistent with recession risk.
  • Rather large (certainly unexpected by the broader market) corporate issuance with $6B each between United Health Care and Citigroup multi-tranche jumbos later in the second half.
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