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Fed Funds Awaiting Fresh Drivers

STIR FUTURES
  • Very little change in Fed Funds implied hikes overnight, with 69bp priced for the Sept FOMC before 121bps over the three meetings to year-end before squeezing out 128bp of hikes to an implied peak of 3.63% in Mar’23.
  • The market continues to price 55bp of cuts to end-23, with Eurodollars implying further notable declines with EDZ3/EDZ4 largely keeping to yesterday’s slide to below -0.50 in new lows for the cycle.
  • Next scheduled Fedspeak seen with 2023 voters in Evans and Kashkari after tomorrow’s CPI in a light calendar.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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