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Fed Funds Have 165bps Priced For 2022

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures have been knocked around by Russia-Ukraine headlines but are back to pricing 42bps for Mar 16, 100bps for Jun 15 and 165bps for 2022.
  • 2022 pricing touched 170bps following further hawkish commentary from Bullard (repeated he wants to frontload with 100bp of hikes by July, adding “our credibility is on the line here”, one of the strongest labor markets the US has ever seen), up from a low of 157bps this morning.
  • Further inflation data tomorrow with US PPI for Jan plus the Empire Manufacturing survey, the first of the main surveys for Feb, with the usual focus on price components and signs of easing supply disruptions.

Fed Funds futures pricing: March meeting (yellow), June meeting (white) and Dec meeting (green)Source: Bloomberg

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