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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- On a day with beats in retail sales, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilisation (the latter the highest since Mar 2019), Fed Funds futures imply smaller hikes.
- Mar 16 has dipped from 41bp to 39bps, back where it was immediately post-CPI before Bullard’s talk of an inter-meeting hike, and with a broadly similar story for May 4 (68bps) and Jun 15 (93bps).
- Harker (2023 voter) added he was more likely in the 25bp camp for March having been undecided between 25/50bps prior to strong payrolls and CPI data. Kashkari (2023) remains firmly dovish.
- Whilst there is still plenty of data to see before the FOMC on Mar 16, it may well take further upside surprises in payrolls (Mar 4) and CPI (Mar 10) to see much more priced in.
Fed Funds Futures Implied Hikes: March (yellow), June (white) and Dec (green)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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