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STIR: Fed Funds More Comfortably Seeing Next Cut In June Rather Than July

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are off earlier lows but have still softened between 0.5-3bp on the day for 2025 meetings.
  • It’s despite oil futures pushing higher in a light session for headlines, with tomorrow’s NFP report looming large.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jan, 11bp Mar, 16.5bp May, 27bp Jun, 31bp Jul and 43bp Dec.
  • Still to come today, hawkish FOMC members Schmid (’25 voter) and Bowman (permanent voters) at 1330ET and 1335ET respectively, both with prepared text and Q&A. Markets will however close early ahead of their release.
  • Schmid said Nov 19 that now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy but that short-term rates aren’t overly restrictive, only somewhat. The Fed will wait to react to fiscal policy rather than pre-empting it.
  • Bowman (perm. voter) reflects on 2024 (text + Q&A), talking on mon pol, economic performance and banking regulation lessons. Some might consider this a public job interview for one of the most hawkish FOMC members. Newswires have reported Bowman is being considered by the incoming Trump administration as the next VC for Supervision with Barr stepping down next month or (seemingly less likely) that she could be on a list of candidates to replace Powell as Chair in May 2026.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are off earlier lows but have still softened between 0.5-3bp on the day for 2025 meetings.
  • It’s despite oil futures pushing higher in a light session for headlines, with tomorrow’s NFP report looming large.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jan, 11bp Mar, 16.5bp May, 27bp Jun, 31bp Jul and 43bp Dec.
  • Still to come today, hawkish FOMC members Schmid (’25 voter) and Bowman (permanent voters) at 1330ET and 1335ET respectively, both with prepared text and Q&A. Markets will however close early ahead of their release.
  • Schmid said Nov 19 that now is the time to dial back restrictiveness of policy but that short-term rates aren’t overly restrictive, only somewhat. The Fed will wait to react to fiscal policy rather than pre-empting it.
  • Bowman (perm. voter) reflects on 2024 (text + Q&A), talking on mon pol, economic performance and banking regulation lessons. Some might consider this a public job interview for one of the most hawkish FOMC members. Newswires have reported Bowman is being considered by the incoming Trump administration as the next VC for Supervision with Barr stepping down next month or (seemingly less likely) that she could be on a list of candidates to replace Powell as Chair in May 2026.
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