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Fed Funds Still Torn On 25bp Or 50bp For May

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures imply a further 158bps of hikes in 2022, i.e. 6.3 hikes over the six meetings, close to where they were as Powell wrapped up the conference after fluctuating overnight but with a recent dip on the Kremlin denying major progress has been made in talks.
  • Despite the hawkish dot plot surprise, the FOMC decision has seen a slight dip in expectations for immediate meetings with 36bp of tightening in May and a cumulative 70bps for June.
  • The latter implies a 17% chance of 50bp over the two meetings, 55% chance of 75bp and 28% chance of 100bp.

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