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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFed Gov Bowman Remains Hawkish, Tsy Curves Bull Flatten
- Tsy futures are drifting near late session highs after the bell, curves flatter with the short end underperforming (2Y10Y -4.508 at -34.067). Light on data, markets showed muted reaction to multiple Fed speakers on the day.
- Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) maintained her hawkish stance in prepared remarks at the 2023 Ohio Bankers League (full here).
- Bowman supported the FOMC’s decision last week to hold rates unchanged but continues to expect that the Fed will need to hike further “to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target in a timely way”.
- On inflation: "Some components of core services inflation have picked up, and I see a continued risk that core services inflation remains stubbornly persistent. In my view, there is also a risk that higher energy prices could reverse some of the progress made to bring overall inflation down."
- Despite this afternoon's hawkish Fed speak, projected rate cut chance into early 2024 gains some ground: December holds at 2.4bp at 5.347%, January 2024 cumulative 3.9bp at 5.368%, while March 2024 pricing in -28.1% chance of a rate cut (-27.6 this morning) with cumulative at -3.1bp at 5.292%, May 2024 cumulative -15bp at 5.174%. Fed terminal at 5.365% in Feb'24.
- Meanwhile, Treasury futures holding narrow range near session highs after $48B 3Y note auction (91282CJK8) largely as expected 4.701% high yield vs. 4.702% WI; 2.67x bid-to-cover vs. 2.56x prior month.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.