MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 17

MNI BRIEF: UK To Delay Implementation of Basel 3.1 Until 2027

MNI: UK DEC RETAIL SALES EX-FUEL -0.6% M/M, 2.9% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: NBS Notes Favourable Conditions For China CPI

MNI BRIEF: China's Q4 GDP Grow By 5.4%, Meeting 2024 Target

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY100.5 Bln via OMO Friday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

MNI: EUROZONE DEC FINAL HICP +0.4% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: UK DEC RETAIL SALES -0.3% M/M, +3.6% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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US TSYS: Fed Gov Waller Rekindles Rate Cut Hopes

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Thursday, scaling to the highest levels since January 6 after Fed Gov Waller's dovish comments on CNBC earlier estimated as many as three rate cuts are still possible this year if data cooperates.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have regained traction after cooling this morning, current lvls vs. this morning* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 at -7.6bp (-6.3bp), May'25 -14bp (-11.8bp), Jun'25 -24.2bp (-20.4bp), Jul'25 at -28.7bp (-23.7bp).
  • Treasuries had pared early losses but held to narrow ranges after this morning's mixed data:
  • Retail sales closed December on a solid note, signifying continued strong domestic demand to end 2024. While headline retail sales growth was slightly softer than expected (0.4% vs 0.6% survey), but that was offset in part by an upward revision to November (0.8% from 0.7%).
  • Initial jobless claims surprised higher but remained at a healthy level last week whilst continuing claims continued a trend modest easing away from recent months. The combination continues to point to dampened re-hiring activity compared to much of 2024 but actual layoffs remain very low and don’t show signs of stress.
  • Reminder, The Fed enters their self imposed media Blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.
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  • Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Thursday, scaling to the highest levels since January 6 after Fed Gov Waller's dovish comments on CNBC earlier estimated as many as three rate cuts are still possible this year if data cooperates.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have regained traction after cooling this morning, current lvls vs. this morning* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 at -7.6bp (-6.3bp), May'25 -14bp (-11.8bp), Jun'25 -24.2bp (-20.4bp), Jul'25 at -28.7bp (-23.7bp).
  • Treasuries had pared early losses but held to narrow ranges after this morning's mixed data:
  • Retail sales closed December on a solid note, signifying continued strong domestic demand to end 2024. While headline retail sales growth was slightly softer than expected (0.4% vs 0.6% survey), but that was offset in part by an upward revision to November (0.8% from 0.7%).
  • Initial jobless claims surprised higher but remained at a healthy level last week whilst continuing claims continued a trend modest easing away from recent months. The combination continues to point to dampened re-hiring activity compared to much of 2024 but actual layoffs remain very low and don’t show signs of stress.
  • Reminder, The Fed enters their self imposed media Blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.