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Fed Hike Expectations Back Near Post-FOMC Levels

STIR FUTURES
  • Hike expectations have dipped through the day following a rise in unemployment and modestly softer wage growth.
  • The high bar to non-50bp hikes over the next couple meetings still stands with 53bp for June and 100bp for July, but this is down 3-4bps from prior to payrolls.
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (’23 voter) earlier pushed back on further accelerating tightening, saying he sees real long-term rates already at their pre-pandemic level so it’s important to follow through on forward guidance. Bostic (’24), Bullard (’22), Waller (voter) and Daly (’24) still to come.
  • There’s a pause on Monday before another flurry of speakers on Tue, including a speech from Williams (voter) as opposed to today’s opening remarks, before CPI for April on Wed.
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  • Hike expectations have dipped through the day following a rise in unemployment and modestly softer wage growth.
  • The high bar to non-50bp hikes over the next couple meetings still stands with 53bp for June and 100bp for July, but this is down 3-4bps from prior to payrolls.
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (’23 voter) earlier pushed back on further accelerating tightening, saying he sees real long-term rates already at their pre-pandemic level so it’s important to follow through on forward guidance. Bostic (’24), Bullard (’22), Waller (voter) and Daly (’24) still to come.
  • There’s a pause on Monday before another flurry of speakers on Tue, including a speech from Williams (voter) as opposed to today’s opening remarks, before CPI for April on Wed.