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Fed Hike Expectations Trimmed Overnight

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed hike expectations have been trimmed overnight to 203bps for Dec'22, down from 210bp late yesterday and Monday’s high of 220bp for FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures.
  • The overnight move comes despite a lack of progress in peace talks (Kremlin most recently says there has been no breakthrough, with lots of work remaining) and with little impact from the latest lockdown in China, this time in the travel hub of Xuzhou with a population of 9M.
  • Immediate meetings have seen a more gradual dip with 43bps for May and 85bps for June.
  • Fedspeak from Barkin (2024 voter) and George (2022) ahead. George speaks for the first time post-FOMC and should provide a hawkish take, likely one of three dots to have looked for 9 hikes to 2.25-2.5% in 2022 or the sole dot for 10 hikes.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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